The dollar is on course to post its largest quarterly advance in 15 years.
Bank of America, though, continues to advance a contrarian theory: the rise and rise of the dollar has been a factor of market illiquidity.
One of the earliest sources of support for the US currency seems to have come from rising tensions in the money markets, as exemplified by the record high levels posted by the three-month USD LIBOR-OIS spread. The severe lack of USD liquidity created incentives for foreign banks to buy dollars in the currency markets with funds received from liquidity enhancing schemes of their own central banks, creating a way to meet USD funding needs without paying the soaring interest rates associated with the Eurodollar markets.
Which of course begs the question: now interbank funding mechanisms are normalising (or at least, reserve levels soaring) are we likely to see a collapse in the dollar?
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